In this Perspective, therefore, we explore possible trajectories that the Russia-Ukraine war could take and how they might affect U.S. However, studies of past conflicts and a close look at the course of this one suggest that this optimistic scenario is improbable. Once it is forced out of Ukraine, a chastened Russia would have little choice but to leave its neighbor in peace-and even pay reparations for the damage it caused. Proponents of this view argue that the risks of Russian nuclear use or a war with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will remain manageable. Ukraine had battlefield momentum as of December 2022 and could conceivably fight until it succeeds in pushing the Russian military out of the country. Some analysts make the case that the war is heading toward an outcome that would benefit the United States and Ukraine. interests, and what Washington can do to promote a trajectory that best serves U.S. It is appropriate to assess how this conflict may evolve, what alternative trajectories might mean for U.S.

This war is the most significant interstate conflict in decades, and its evolution will have major consequences for the United States. But Kyiv and Moscow are not the only capitals with a stake in what happens. The trajectory and ultimate outcome of the war will, of course, be determined largely by the policies of Ukraine and Russia. Negotiations on ending the conflict have been suspended since May. Fighting still rages across nearly 1,000 km of front lines. Although successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson in fall 2022 renewed optimism about Kyiv's prospects on the battlefield, Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement on September 21 of a partial mobilization and annexation of four Ukrainian provinces was a stark reminder that this war is nowhere near a resolution. How does this end? Increasingly, this question is dominating discussion of the Russia-Ukraine war in Washington and other Western capitals. Ukrainian servicemen are seen near the frontline, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near Soledar in Donetsk region.

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